By Calvin Danger
Last week we talked about ideal points awarded for Tackles and Sacks in IDP Scoring Systems Pt. 1. Today I will discuss Turnovers and Scoring Plays.
Turnovers change the game. They get the ball from the defense to the offense, often swinging momentum. The top 5 teams in turnover margin for 2014 were Green Bay, New England, Houston, Seattle, and Arizona. Notice a trend? Four playoff teams, two of which squared off in the Super Bowl. Players that create turnovers for their teams should be handsomely rewarded as it clearly has a huge impact on the chances of winning any given game.
Aside from botched snaps and handoffs, it is nearly impossible to recover a fumble without it first being forced. It is also a more rare statistic than one would think. Since 2010 there has not been a single player that has had more than 10 FF’s in a year nor a team with more than 32. By standard scoring, this extremely important and extremely rare play is only worth 1 point – exactly the same as a Tackle, which is by far the most common defensive statistic.
Strangely, however, there is very little correlation from forcing a fumble to recovering one. Only about 60% of all forced fumbles turn into recoveries by the forcing player’s team, which also shows the importance of who ends up falling on the ball. As a forced fumble is essentially useless without a recovery, the player that picks up the ball should receive more points than the player that knocked it out.
I could almost copy and paste the exact same argument for Interceptions that I use for Fumble Recoveries. To add on to what I talk about there, they are rare, eliminate the opportunity for a scoring drive for the opposing team, and swing momentum. I would score these the same as a fumble recovery.
As much as I want to score defensive TD’s as more than their offensive counterpart, at Touchdown is a Touchdown and should be scored as a Touchdown. There are some bonus points that go into it as well as they are always going to be added on top of an interception or fumble recovery.
Hear me out on this one. Safeties are the most rare play in the NFL. There has never been a season where a team had more than 4 safeties on the season, and only 5 teams have ever done that. There has never been a player that has had more than 1 in a season. It is also has a huge impact on the outcome of a game. It awards 2 points and sets up the offense with great field position. For this reason I would make it the same value as a touchdown. I considered making it more, but keep in mind that safeties are almost always accompanied by a Sack (5pts) or a TFL (3 pts)
So here is my ideal scoring altogether:
|Tackle for Loss||3pt||Sack||5pt|
|Forced Fumble||2pt||Fumble Recovery||5pt|
If you would like to check out the full spreadsheet of 2014 Players and Points using this scoring system click here.