Tyler Lockett has been getting a lot of press lately. Earlier this off-season Dorial Green-Beckham was the consensus to be “this year’s Allen Robinson.” But the news cycle moves fast and is impatient for new insights.
This past month, Matt Harmon named Tyler Locket “this year’s Allen Robinson” and we were off to the races. The article is a good read with lots of detail but personally I just don’t buy the hype. I’m still a DGB guy.
Of course their values aren’t mutually exclusive but looking to “sell high” on Lockett, I was actually just about to post a new thread on /r/DynastyFF about what kind of value I should expect for Lockett when I received an email from a leaguemate. He inquired about my single share of the second year Seattle WR.
Luckily for IDPDynasty.com, it’s an IDP league and my leaguemate came bearing linebackers. What better chance to look at the interplay between the value of offensive and defensive players in trades.
As a rookie just a year ago, you were likely buying Tyler Lockett in the third round, a little later in IDP and 2-QB leagues. Devon Smith, Philip Dorsett, and Stefon Diggs were guys in the same range. Diggs had his rookie value spike but Lockett is clearly the most loved of those guys now.
Lockett is now in the discussion with guys like Dorial Green-Beckham and even Devante Parker, players who were being drafted a round, even two rounds, ahead. That’s a pretty nice value bump. If you’re look to stockpile 2017 picks, landing an early one for him would be quite the value gain.
But would it be worth it? Assuming you do want to sell, what kind of defensive haul might Lockett be worth? At startup, high end WR prospects like Kevin White, Parker, and DGB typically go very close together somewhere in the third round. A top LB like CJ Mosley typically comes off the board two to three rounds later.
It just so happens my leaguemate has CJ Mosley, Kwon Alexander, and Mark Barron. But to make up the difference, I’d want to replace my young, ascending WR prospect with a lower value one. Who else does my leaguemate have on his roster? Devin Smith and Jaelen Strong! It looks like we’ve got a match.
Something along these lines would be a very fair deal for Lockett. At the end of the day, though, I like my young linebackers in that league (Telvin Smith, Preston Brown, Myles Jack) to continue to develop.
At the same time, I feel very thin at such a key position as WR — I’ve actually got White, Parker, and Lockett — and don’t want to risk depleting my core.
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